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Top stories

France, EU End EDF Dam Dispute With New Authorization Regime

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for CRE

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.63%chance

401281850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15578

2885

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.11%chance

19526223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

379

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.17%chance

3517355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7670

470

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1615237

OptionProbability

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2028-2029

2036-2037

>= 2046

2038-2039

2040-2041

2042-2043

2027

2044-2045

2026

16

16

16

10

9

9

5

5

5

4

4

2

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

15.93%chance

1513700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21180

5941

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.46%chance

2112898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13764

3641

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

68.56%chance

187360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1477

677

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.98%chance

395522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

941

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

42.94%chance

324443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

960

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
France
Law
Energy
France, EU End EDF Dam Dispute With New Authorization Regime
Authors
3
1 year ago

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