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Top stories

France, EU End EDF Dam Dispute With New Authorization Regime

Authors

3

11 months ago

Prediction markets for CRE

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.5%chance

394267498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8718

3879

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73%chance

19425921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1724

460

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

1.96%chance

3516750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8275

457

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1614212

OptionProbability

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2028-2029

2036-2037

>= 2046

2038-2039

2040-2041

2042-2043

2027

2044-2045

2026

16

16

16

10

9

8

5

5

5

4

4

2

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.26%chance

2112589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14072

3617

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.62%chance

13311375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2266

1908

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18607

6485

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30.86%chance

395422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

983

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

43%chance

304305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

961

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
France
Law
Energy
France, EU End EDF Dam Dispute With New Authorization Regime
Authors
3
11 months ago

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