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Prediction markets for CRE
OptionVotes
30708
3738
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?
Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM
32.39%chance
26343269
OptionVotes
7111
1855
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM
4.23%chance
315843
OptionVotes
4627
564
Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?
Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM
30.29%chance
75041
OptionVotes
12910
8301
OptionVotes
1095
943
OptionVotes
1099
883
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.67%chance
171570
OptionVotes
6171
4649
Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?
Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM
35.35%chance
7876
OptionVotes
10313
9761
Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?
Jan 27, 12:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.5%chance
6731
OptionVotes
10255
9775
Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?
Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
30.12%chance
6526
OptionVotes
3023
2156
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
By when will Cursor agent be able to create "Cursor rules" according to the official docs?
Mar 24, 9:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
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