Crisis News

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and 2025 Budget Rollback Threaten Medicaid for 650,000 in NC and Mental Health Services Including 988 LGBTQ+ Support

1 year ago

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

60.7%chance

15248690

OptionVotes

YES

1425

461

Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?

Nov 14, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76.69%chance

879641

OptionVotes

YES

1775

1245

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497096

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

How will the Hubble Tension ("crisis in cosmology") be resolved?

Mar 3, 7:43 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

554533

OptionProbability

Current Cosmic Ladder estimates are wrong

Current Cosmic Microwave Background estimates are wrong

Both are wrong

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

Sep 29, 9:17 AMMay 7, 4:59 AM

162373

OptionProbability

2040 and later

2027

2029

2030-2039

2028

2026

2023

2024

2025

Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?

Jul 31, 10:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8%chance

161737

OptionVotes

YES

445

125

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

1045

982

Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?

Feb 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.45%chance

131417

OptionVotes

YES

1096

913

Will the Fertility Crisis be solved by Fertility Technology ( Artificial Wombs, Embryo Selection, Robot Nannies etc.)

Mar 16, 2:27 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

61.29%chance

201226

OptionVotes

YES

1313

717

In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

Mar 6, 6:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14946

OptionProbability

Other

2028

2030

2029

2027

2026

2024

2025

2022

2023

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Jul 4, 6:28 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

47.31%chance

17586

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?

Dec 16, 8:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.08%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

137

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
US Legislation
US Domestic Policy
Health
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and 2025 Budget Rollback Threaten Medicaid for 650,000 in NC and Mental Health Services Including 988 LGBTQ+ Support
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1 year ago

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Prediction markets for Crisis

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Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

How will the Hubble Tension ("crisis in cosmology") be resolved?

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?

Will the Fertility Crisis be solved by Fertility Technology ( Artificial Wombs, Embryo Selection, Robot Nannies etc.)

In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?

Latest stories

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