Crisis News

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and 2025 Budget Rollback Threaten Medicaid for 650,000 in NC and Mental Health Services Including 988 LGBTQ+ Support

1 year ago

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

55%chance

15148508

OptionVotes

YES

1318

538

Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?

Nov 14, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76.69%chance

879641

OptionVotes

YES

1775

1245

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497048

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

How will the Hubble Tension ("crisis in cosmology") be resolved?

Mar 3, 7:43 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

534500

OptionProbability

Current Cosmic Ladder estimates are wrong

Current Cosmic Microwave Background estimates are wrong

Both are wrong

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

1045

982

Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?

Feb 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.77%chance

121367

OptionVotes

YES

1046

956

Will the Fertility Crisis be solved by Fertility Technology ( Artificial Wombs, Embryo Selection, Robot Nannies etc.)

Mar 16, 2:27 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

61.29%chance

201226

OptionVotes

YES

1313

717

In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

Mar 6, 6:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14946

OptionProbability

Other

2028

2030

2029

2027

2026

2024

2025

2022

2023

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Jul 4, 6:28 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

54.41%chance

15571

OptionVotes

YES

109

Contingent Market: Donald Trump Election and Constitutional Crisis

Feb 10, 10:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10364

OptionProbability

Trump wins: Constitutional Crisis

Trump loses: Constitutional Crisis

Will New York City government have a 1975 style financial crisis, threat of bankruptcy, before the end of 2028?

Mar 29, 1:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.12%chance

9159

OptionVotes

YES

200

Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?

Dec 16, 8:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.08%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

137

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
US Legislation
US Domestic Policy
Health
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and 2025 Budget Rollback Threaten Medicaid for 650,000 in NC and Mental Health Services Including 988 LGBTQ+ Support
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1 year ago

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Prediction markets for Crisis

Prediction markets for Crisis

Prediction markets for Crisis

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

How will the Hubble Tension ("crisis in cosmology") be resolved?

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?

Will the Fertility Crisis be solved by Fertility Technology ( Artificial Wombs, Embryo Selection, Robot Nannies etc.)

In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Contingent Market: Donald Trump Election and Constitutional Crisis

Will New York City government have a 1975 style financial crisis, threat of bankruptcy, before the end of 2028?

Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?

Latest stories

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