Criteria News

José Antonio Kast Leads Chilean Race with 30% Vote, Ahead of Jara by 13 Points in Cadem Runoff Poll

10 months ago

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

60.61%chance

204980

OptionVotes

YES

1241

806

Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?

Jun 29, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.24%chance

121116

OptionVotes

YES

1049

601

Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

Aug 3, 1:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.43%chance

181009

OptionVotes

YES

1538

789

OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)

Mar 14, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

9963

OptionVotes

YES

1732

577

Will Manifold change share quest criteria in June?

Jun 3, 11:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

4215

OptionProbability

No, neither of those before July

Yes, I will no longer get a bonus by only opening the 'share' window

Yes, I will get a bonus by posting an embedded question comment

Yes, both of those changes will occur

Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?

Jun 6, 6:16 AMSep 9, 9:59 PM

43.66%chance

3193

OptionVotes

YES

114

Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

Aug 3, 10:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38%chance

10183

OptionVotes

YES

152

136

Will the Research Domain Criteria term return more than 50,000 results on Web of Science core collection, on 01/01/2030?

Mar 7, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

24.48%chance

2182

OptionVotes

YES

108

Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria

Mar 19, 3:21 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50%chance

19150

OptionVotes

YES

1008

992

Is it ok to trade on your own market (objective criteria) right before resolving?

Apr 1, 11:01 AM

720

Criteria suggestions for a deterministic chess bot

Nov 27, 2:08 AM

Which market about the Wikipedia campaign to redefine the concept of sex has clearer resolution criteria?

Nov 24, 7:16 AM

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Chile
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José Antonio Kast Leads Chilean Race with 30% Vote, Ahead of Jara by 13 Points in Cadem Runoff Poll
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10 months ago

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[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?

Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)

Will Manifold change share quest criteria in June?

Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?

Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

Will the Research Domain Criteria term return more than 50,000 results on Web of Science core collection, on 01/01/2030?

Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria

Is it ok to trade on your own market (objective criteria) right before resolving?

Criteria suggestions for a deterministic chess bot

Which market about the Wikipedia campaign to redefine the concept of sex has clearer resolution criteria?

Latest stories

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WhatsApp

Telegram