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Prediction markets for Criteria

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)

Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

21477630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4631

2534

Will Sam Wendover "die" on 6/12/2025? (broad criteria)

Feb 22, 5:00 AMAug 13, 6:59 AM

20%chance

444815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

37.76%chance

184515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

779

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria)

Nov 8, 11:11 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

11.21%chance

10750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

45

Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

Aug 3, 1:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.11%chance

15744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

873

Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2025?

Jun 6, 11:33 PMSep 8, 11:59 PM

4.23%chance

5388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

476

21

Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?

Jun 29, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.75%chance

12365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

649

257

Will the Research Domain Criteria term return more than 50,000 results on Web of Science core collection, on 01/01/2030?

Mar 7, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

24.48%chance

2182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

48

Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

Aug 3, 10:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.41%chance

9177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

146

Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria

Mar 19, 3:21 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50%chance

19150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Should a market be halted when a major discussion on resolution criteria takes place?

Aug 26, 11:24 AMApr 19, 3:59 PM

450

Which market about the Wikipedia campaign to redefine the concept of sex has clearer resolution criteria?

Nov 24, 7:16 AM

60

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