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Prediction markets for Criteria
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)
Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.12%chance
22089937
OptionVotes
16786
850
[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM
58.63%chance
194930
OptionVotes
1191
840
Will 2025 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria)
Nov 8, 11:11 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
1%chance
111349
OptionVotes
1078
16
Will Aaron Bergman find a job matching his criteria by EOY2025?
Oct 15, 2:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
45%chance
6982
OptionVotes
1106
905
OptionVotes
1323
855
Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?
Jun 29, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
86.75%chance
12365
OptionVotes
1349
957
Will the Research Domain Criteria term return more than 50,000 results on Web of Science core collection, on 01/01/2030?
Mar 7, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM
24.48%chance
2182
OptionVotes
108
48
Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Aug 3, 10:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
35.85%chance
10178
OptionVotes
147
145
Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 12/12/2025?
Sep 9, 6:58 AMDec 12, 10:59 PM
14.39%chance
7151
OptionVotes
244
41
OptionVotes
1008
992
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