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Prediction markets for CRU
Will Ukraine use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack the Kerch Bridge?
May 13, 1:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
26.19%chance
606735
OptionVotes
1621
634
OptionVotes
1292
845
Will the US government crush OpenAI while Elon Musk is a government employee, in 2025?
Feb 18, 3:40 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
3.7%chance
54101
OptionVotes
5101
196
Will Tom Cruise be making Mission Impossible movies in his eighties?
Jul 5, 7:37 PMJul 2, 10:59 PM
26.56%chance
28979
OptionVotes
1317
812
Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?
Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
72.62%chance
21788
OptionVotes
1024
968
How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?
May 25, 7:46 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
38.62%chance
6573
OptionVotes
1261
793
Will Ted Cruz (American politician and attorney) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 30, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.16%chance
13489
OptionVotes
1318
937
OptionVotes
1459
987
OptionVotes
160
109
Tom Cruise is the effective leader of the church of scientology before 2031
Jul 13, 1:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.51%chance
5159
OptionVotes
295
112
Will "LLM Generality is a Timeline Crux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 25, 8:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.34%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Sweet & Sour Showdown: Will Michigan Sweet be priced higher than Wyoming Sour crude oil on Juneteenth?
Jun 25, 5:46 AMJun 20, 3:59 AM
56.46%chance
226
OptionVotes
114
88