Data for Progress News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Data for Progress
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?
Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
70.91%chance
163619
OptionVotes
1561
641
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?
Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
45.56%chance
383542
OptionVotes
1093
915
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
74.89%chance
311936
OptionVotes
1629
626
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?
Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
79%chance
61726
OptionVotes
1940
516
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?
Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
51.74%chance
161655
OptionVotes
1035
966
At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies
Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23.27%chance
91223
OptionVotes
1816
551
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035?
May 17, 1:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
64.73%chance
10694
OptionVotes
1355
738
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?
May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
51.41%chance
10600
OptionVotes
1029
972
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?
May 21, 10:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
52.9%chance
7592
OptionVotes
1060
944
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
60.92%chance
11570
OptionVotes
1249
801
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?
May 18, 12:47 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
57.55%chance
10395
OptionVotes
1164
859
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034?
May 17, 10:03 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
63.46%chance
7326
OptionVotes
1318
759
Latest stories
Latest stories