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Prediction markets for DEEP
By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?
Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
7%chance
21358835
OptionVotes
5411
1075
OptionProbability
1622
664
Will geometric deep learning turn out to be as influential an idea as transformers?
May 7, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.46%chance
624393
OptionVotes
1715
731
Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?
May 21, 6:31 PMMay 28, 9:59 PM
76.84%chance
273817
OptionVotes
1821
549
Will Tamay Besiroglu win his Deep Learning vs Program Synthesis bet with Mike Knoop?
Oct 28, 1:24 AMNov 4, 6:59 AM
86.59%chance
142088
OptionVotes
2541
393
Will a research base be established in the deep sea before Mars?
Feb 17, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
70.79%chance
16767
OptionVotes
1199
898
Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?
Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
24.57%chance
3280
OptionVotes
4054
3761
Will a permanent research base be established in the deep sea before Mars?
Feb 17, 11:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
66.63%chance
14269
OptionVotes
1058
962
Will there be a publicly explicated Scientific Theory of Deep Learning before 2032?
May 2, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.38%chance
7223
OptionVotes
1166
858
Will there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication
Jun 1, 2:05 PMNov 18, 10:59 PM
52.36%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954
Will "A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 19, 9:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.23%chance
245
OptionVotes
1045
763
Will "Deep learning as program synthesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jan 21, 3:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16.93%chance
232
OptionVotes
1032
824
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