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Meta’s Superintelligence Lab Loses Eight Employees Including Rishabh Agarwal and Chaya Nayak Amid Billion-Dollar Hiring Spree

8 months ago

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

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Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

8 months ago

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

8402

653

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

2494

1805

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.99%chance

333202

OptionVotes

YES

2600

982

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

182784

OptionVotes

YES

2675

766

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.69%chance

261750

OptionVotes

YES

1795

222

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

1156

871

Is a room temperature superconducting crystal within the DeepMind-predicted dataset?

Dec 14, 3:49 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.83%chance

121370

OptionVotes

YES

1235

946

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

271156

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?

Nov 30, 9:00 PMJan 14, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

1333

878

Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?

Aug 10, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.58%chance

5795

OptionVotes

YES

833

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

YES

172

124

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

105

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Aug 28, 2025
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Aug 27, 2025
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Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Is a room temperature superconducting crystal within the DeepMind-predicted dataset?

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?

Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

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