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Meta’s Superintelligence Lab Loses Eight Employees Including Rishabh Agarwal and Chaya Nayak Amid Billion-Dollar Hiring Spree

10 months ago

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

AI Modeling

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Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

10 months ago

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

8402

653

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

2494

1805

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.83%chance

343302

OptionVotes

YES

2700

978

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

192787

OptionVotes

YES

2678

765

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

272003

OptionVotes

YES

1546

323

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

1156

871

Is a room temperature superconducting crystal within the DeepMind-predicted dataset?

Dec 14, 3:49 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.83%chance

121370

OptionVotes

YES

1235

946

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMJul 31, 10:00 PM

99%chance

81161

OptionVotes

YES

1235

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

271156

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

Serrano and Google DeepMind publish Navier-Stokes result by 2027?

Jun 25, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.34%chance

241126

OptionVotes

YES

218

Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?

Nov 30, 9:00 PMJan 14, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

1333

878

Will "AGI Safety & Alignment @ Google DeepMind is h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 21, 7:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.53%chance

2107

OptionVotes

YES

207

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
AI Modeling
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10 months ago
Aug 27, 2025
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Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Is a room temperature superconducting crystal within the DeepMind-predicted dataset?

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Serrano and Google DeepMind publish Navier-Stokes result by 2027?

Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?

Will "AGI Safety & Alignment @ Google DeepMind is h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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