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Prediction markets for DeepMind
Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?
Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.43%chance
3711745
OptionVotes
8402
653
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)
Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM
52.59%chance
767314
OptionVotes
2494
1805
Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM
3.99%chance
333202
OptionVotes
2600
982
Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?
Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM
6.58%chance
172783
OptionVotes
2674
766
Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?
Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.98%chance
261550
OptionVotes
1595
298
By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?
Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
38.66%chance
251521
OptionVotes
1156
871
Is a room temperature superconducting crystal within the DeepMind-predicted dataset?
Dec 14, 3:49 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
7.83%chance
121370
OptionVotes
1235
946
Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?
Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
271156
OptionProbability
29
23
Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?
Nov 30, 9:00 PMJan 14, 11:59 PM
20.14%chance
161070
OptionVotes
1333
878
Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?
Aug 10, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
96.59%chance
5495
OptionVotes
533
19
Will "AGI Safety & Alignment @ Google DeepMind is h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 21, 7:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
6.53%chance
2107
OptionVotes
207
89
DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?
Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
26.34%chance
399
OptionVotes
105
49
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