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Prediction markets for DeepSeek
OptionVotes
9852
102
OptionVotes
1712
584
OptionVotes
4136
242
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
7.49%chance
517972
OptionVotes
5305
495
OptionVotes
3707
270
If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?
Feb 18, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.46%chance
142255
OptionVotes
1583
632
OptionVotes
1781
562
Will the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?
Jan 10, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.27%chance
91151
OptionVotes
2146
663
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
Aug 22, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.03%chance
5603
OptionVotes
1603
624
Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?
Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.54%chance
10274
OptionVotes
175
57
OptionVotes
361
28
Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?
Jan 6, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
71.29%chance
9144
OptionVotes
672
558
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