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Prediction markets for DeepSeek
OptionVotes
50734
4866
Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?
Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
4.78%chance
7553121
OptionVotes
46557
2925
OptionVotes
1152
868
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
7.46%chance
507971
OptionVotes
5317
494
OptionVotes
2537
394
Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?
Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.44%chance
233562
OptionVotes
1189
841
OptionVotes
2354
425
Did DeepSeek violate OpenAI's terms of service by using OpenAI model outputs for distillation in 2024 or January 2025?
Jan 30, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
9.29%chance
92341
OptionVotes
3125
320
OptionVotes
1327
753
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
Aug 22, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.03%chance
5603
OptionVotes
1603
624
Will DeepSeek V3.2 get >145 on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)?
Dec 2, 1:10 AMJan 1, 1:09 AM
38%chance
4597
OptionVotes
1277
783
Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?
Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.54%chance
10274
OptionVotes
175
57
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