Defense News

Pentagon Prepares Strike Options Against Mexican Cartel Targets

6 months ago

Politics

Trump Signals Plan to Rename Pentagon the ‘Department of War’ Within Week

5 months ago

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41%chance

19028884

OptionVotes

YES

1200

834

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

27.06%chance

6120269

OptionVotes

YES

16061

6360

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

30.37%chance

11119692

OptionVotes

YES

1515

661

[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

Jul 10, 10:57 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

11.13%chance

105772

OptionVotes

YES

2826

354

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.96%chance

393771

OptionVotes

YES

1253

957

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.77%chance

181382

OptionVotes

YES

1515

722

EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029

Mar 10, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.39%chance

6801

OptionVotes

YES

1119

893

What will US defense spending be as a % of GDP in 2030?

Mar 8, 3:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4539

OptionProbability

3 - 3.49%

3.5 - 3.99%

1 - 1.99%

2 - 2.99%

4 - 4.99%

5 - 9.99%

10 - 19.99%

20%+

Below 1%

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.95%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

1395

717

Will Russia or North Korea honor mutual defense pact if the other is attacked?

Jun 19, 4:49 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.85%chance

5205

OptionVotes

YES

1087

953

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

1030

981

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

1119

949

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Aug 25, 2025
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5 months ago
Aug 21, 2025
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US Foreign Policy
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6 months ago

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Defense News

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Prediction markets for Defense

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Prediction markets for Defense

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029

What will US defense spending be as a % of GDP in 2030?

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Will Russia or North Korea honor mutual defense pact if the other is attacked?

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Latest stories

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