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Prediction markets for Defense

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.08%chance

18928440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

982

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

13.67%chance

10217998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2513

398

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13461

7504

Will Israel deploy Iron Beam defense in 2025?

Oct 28, 8:36 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

89.45%chance

257974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2912

343

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.84%chance

363566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

1096

Will the US send more patriot air defense systems to Ukraine before September 30, 2025?

Jun 26, 6:03 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

87%chance

202595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2587

387

Will Putin's former defense minister Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2025?

May 12, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.11%chance

301360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1985

1730

EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029

Mar 10, 2:16 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

60.62%chance

6446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1241

806

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.61%chance

7435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

744

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

NFL 2025 - Which position will win Defensive Rookie of the Year?

May 13, 2:41 AMFeb 28, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

DT

Edge

LB

CB

S

20

20

20

20

20

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