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Prediction markets for Defense
Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?
Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.67%chance
20440015
OptionVotes
1208
828
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
31.26%chance
7024069
OptionVotes
14460
7017
Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM
12.19%chance
12322702
OptionVotes
2685
373
[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
Jul 10, 10:57 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM
10.46%chance
115872
OptionVotes
2926
342
If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?
Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.09%chance
423983
OptionVotes
1202
1000
Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?
Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
8.18%chance
52620
OptionVotes
3449
306
Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?
Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
21.71%chance
191797
OptionVotes
1772
640
EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029
Mar 10, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
44.39%chance
6801
OptionVotes
1119
893
Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)
Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.95%chance
8485
OptionVotes
1395
717
Will Russia or North Korea honor mutual defense pact if the other is attacked?
Jun 19, 4:49 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
75.6%chance
6235
OptionVotes
988
983
Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040
Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
27.32%chance
11176
OptionVotes
1030
981
Will "In defense of parents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 4, 12:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.74%chance
2105
OptionVotes
1098
985
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