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Trump Signals Plan to Rename Pentagon the ‘Department of War’ Within Week
Authors
60
10 months ago
Prediction markets for Defense
Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?
Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.31%chance
19736834
OptionVotes
2352
425
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
34.5%chance
6422808
OptionVotes
13402
7535
Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM
20.86%chance
11820863
OptionVotes
1948
514
[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
Jul 10, 10:57 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM
11.13%chance
105772
OptionVotes
2826
354
If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?
Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.3%chance
403871
OptionVotes
1244
964
Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?
Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
20.99%chance
191753
OptionVotes
1815
628
EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029
Mar 10, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
44.39%chance
6801
OptionVotes
1119
893
Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)
Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.95%chance
8485
OptionVotes
1395
717
Will Russia or North Korea honor mutual defense pact if the other is attacked?
Jun 19, 4:49 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
77.85%chance
5205
OptionVotes
1087
953
Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040
Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
27.32%chance
11176
OptionVotes
1030
981
Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?
Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54.23%chance
4120
OptionVotes
1119
949
Will "In defense of parents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 4, 12:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.74%chance
2105
OptionVotes
1098
985
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