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Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

5 months ago

Economics

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Business

DeFi Market at $0.5 Trillion Set to Capture $10 Trillion of TradFi’s $128 Trillion AUM in Five Years

6 months ago

Kraken and Peers List Trump-Backed WLFI Token; American Bitcoin Readies Nasdaq Debut

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Kraken and Peers List Trump-Backed WLFI Token; American Bitcoin Readies Nasdaq Debut

5 months ago

Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

Nov 26, 10:08 PMFeb 6, 4:59 AM

12.51%chance

9426357

OptionVotes

YES

2644

378

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

57.84%chance

4310479

OptionVotes

YES

1171

854

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

Lithium deficiency causes Alzheimer's?

Aug 19, 6:34 AMSep 2, 6:14 AM

27.13%chance

172391

OptionVotes

YES

2875

1480

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.29%chance

11795

OptionVotes

YES

1077

928

Will the Trump administration defy any SCOTUS ruling before the end of 2028?

Mar 30, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.35%chance

24474

OptionVotes

YES

158

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

32.89%chance

6421

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will a quantum attack lead to a real-world crypto theft exceeding $100M before 2032?

Jan 27, 8:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5202

OptionProbability

NO • Attackers may remain stealthy for strategic advantage. • PQC migration may happen faster than expected.

YES • DeFi hacks already exceed this number with classical tools. • Quantum-enabled key extraction would be catastrophic.

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Jan 10, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

Between $1t and $5t

Between $500b and $1t

>$10tn

Between $5t and $10t

Between $100b and $500b

< $100bn

Is it good that Musk is defying Brazil's attempted censorship of X?

Apr 12, 10:43 PM

210

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Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Lithium deficiency causes Alzheimer's?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Will the Trump administration defy any SCOTUS ruling before the end of 2028?

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Will a quantum attack lead to a real-world crypto theft exceeding $100M before 2032?

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Is it good that Musk is defying Brazil's attempted censorship of X?

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