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Top stories

Bayrou Urges Talks, Says France Should Avoid Snap Elections

Bayrou Urges Talks, Says France Should Avoid Snap Elections

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Democratic Movement

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

15.35%chance

375088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2348

426

Will Elon flip parties again before 2033?

Apr 18, 3:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.81%chance

283670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2012

497

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Jul 6, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.24%chance

273149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2455

407

To which political party will Johannesburg's next mayor belong?

May 17, 9:29 PMMay 18, 5:59 AM

32976

OptionProbability

Democratic Alliance

African National Congress

Action South Africa

uMkhonto weSizwe

Patriotic Alliance

Other

Economic Freedom Fighters

Inkatha Freedom Party

Build One South Africa

Rise Mzansi

Freedom Front Plus

United Democratic Movement

61

14

8

6

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.29%chance

252294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

788

Will Zelenskyy Be Illiberal by 2030?

Jan 24, 8:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.2%chance

381205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

770

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.59%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4357

3816

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached by EOY 2027

Jan 14, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

10374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

If Democrats win the 2026 Midterms will Republicans contest or deny the results?

Jan 12, 2:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.89%chance

7270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

47

What would be Burkina Faso classified as in The Economist Democracy Index for 2026?

Jan 25, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1229

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

85

6

5

4

Will MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?

Mar 13, 10:36 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

24.75%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

57

How much does firearm control and 2A rhetoric switch political parties?

Mar 4, 3:11 AMNov 2, 3:10 AM

30.76%chance

282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

63

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
France
Politics
World
Bayrou Urges Talks, Says France Should Avoid Snap Elections
Authors
6
1 year ago

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