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Prediction markets for Discovery
Major physics discovery thanks to AI by the end of 2025?
Aug 25, 3:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4.41%chance
9611253
OptionVotes
4889
832
OptionVotes
3972
128
Is there a major headline discovery that still remains hidden in the world's oceans?
Apr 7, 9:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
88.78%chance
813413
OptionVotes
2609
1178
Will a human walk on Mars before a Nobel Prize is awarded for a discovery relating to dark matter?
Jun 16, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:01 AM
67.74%chance
362720
OptionVotes
977
952
OptionVotes
2830
353
Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?
Apr 21, 8:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.48%chance
221465
OptionVotes
1909
788
Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?
May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM
22.82%chance
111221
OptionVotes
1842
547
Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years?
Mar 15, 12:30 AMDec 22, 2:59 AM
36.9%chance
18508
OptionVotes
994
990
Will AI play a substential role in the discovery of the first room T+P superconductor ?
Mar 6, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
63.25%chance
23471
OptionVotes
1160
890
By 2040, will a chamber have been found in or under the Great Sphinx that represents a significant discovery?
Aug 9, 7:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
32%chance
20333
OptionVotes
1046
971
Will evolutionary psychology make a clinically useful discovery by 2050?
Apr 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM
35.28%chance
12308
OptionVotes
1119
924
Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?
Nov 27, 9:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
18.29%chance
11290
OptionVotes
993
983
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