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Top stories

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s 10 Talks on Unity Challenge China; 24 KMT Lawmakers Survive July 26 Recall Vote; US Stopover Delayed

US Foreign Policy

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s 10 Talks on Unity Challenge China; 24 KMT Lawmakers Survive July 26 Recall Vote; US Stopover Delayed

Authors

32

8 days ago

Kennedy Kalombotole Charged in Kenyatta National Hospital Murders of Gilbert Kinyua and Edward Ndegwa, Faces Mental Health Evaluation

Kennedy Kalombotole Charged in Kenyatta National Hospital Murders of Gilbert Kinyua and Edward Ndegwa, Faces Mental Health Evaluation

Authors

3

9 days ago

Taiwan Recall Bid Fails, 24 KMT Lawmakers Keep Seats

Taiwan Recall Bid Fails, 24 KMT Lawmakers Keep Seats

Authors

13

7 days ago

Kenyan Authorities Charge 36 Saba Saba Protesters Including MP Mukunji With Terrorism, DPP Defends Charges Amid Bail Releases

Authors

7

11 days ago

Kenyan Court Dismisses Illegal Charges Against Rose Njeri; Orders DCI on Missing Blogger Ndiang’ui; KNH Murder Suspect Arraigned

Authors

14

23 days ago

Prediction markets for DPP

Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?

Aug 9, 4:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

565095

OptionProbability

CCP (China)

PAP (Singapore)

BJP (India)

CDU (Germany)

United Russia (Russia)

LDP (Japan)

Labour (UK)

Fidesz (Hungary)

PSUV (Venezuela)

DPP (Taiwan)

Democratic Party (USA)

Brothers of Italy (Italy)

TDP (Turkmenistan)

AKP (Turkey)

PT (Brazil)

Republican Party (USA)

DPK (South Korea)

PSOE (Spain)

PFDJ (Eritrea)

Renaissance (France)

Likud (Israel)

SPD (Germany)

Liberal Party (Canada)

97

93

90

83

82

80

75

73

60

60

51

50

50

47

45

44

43

38

38

32

31

30

16

Taiwan Presidential Election Result vs Armed Conflict with China in Following Term

Dec 7, 7:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

91278

OptionProbability

DPP Win / No Armed Conflict

DPP Win / Armed Conflict

KMT Win / Armed Conflict

KMT Win / No Armed Conflict

60

38

1

1

Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?

Jan 12, 1:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.87%chance

8521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

549

106

Will China go to war with Taiwan before the DPP loses the Taiwanese presidency

Mar 29, 11:18 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

39.47%chance

8212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

212

Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Jan 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.38%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

127

Will the DPP have a majority in the Legislative Yuan on January 1st 2026?

Jun 28, 11:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.27%chance

3135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Will Lai Ching-te (of the DPP party in Taiwan) still be alive by EOY 2027?

Oct 21, 6:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.88%chance

3108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

49

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the DPP run on a platform to maintain the status quo in Cross-Strait Relations?

Jan 14, 5:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.04%chance

3106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

63

Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Jan 12, 1:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.5%chance

791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

138

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will any 'Green' party, except the DPP, win seats in the 2028 Legislative Election?

Jan 14, 4:41 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

54.95%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (Yes) → Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050

Apr 28, 7:21 PMJan 2, 5:01 AM

49.01%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

71

69

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (No) → Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050

Apr 28, 7:21 PMJan 2, 5:01 AM

49.01%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

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