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Dutch News

    Prediction markets for Dutch

    🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]

    May 22, 7:43 PMJul 11, 10:36 PM
    35145642

    OptionProbability

    Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

    3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

    Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

    Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

    Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

    put butter into it

    Toast the bread

    Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

    Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

    Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

    Half yeast

    Bake it with your best friend.

    Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

    Bake for 5 more minutes

    Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

    Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

    Increase water by 50 g

    it needs more salt

    Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

    Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

    Serve the bread hot

    Use Iodized salt

    Do a second rise

    Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

    Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

    Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

    don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

    Use sourdough instead of yeast

    Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

    Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

    Add garlic

    Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

    Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

    Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

    Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

    Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

    Use the same dough bake it as focaccia. Flat with EVOO added during shaped rise and baste with EVOO instead of spraying water during baking.

    put ketchup and cheese on it

    add 'gunpowder' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idli_podi)

    Add slurs to it

    Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

    Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

    Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.

    Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

    Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

    Make the bread taste good

    Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

    Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.

    Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content

    Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

    Mix only flour and water. Wait 30–60 minutes. Then mix in yeast and salt.

    If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

    throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example

    Make banana bread

    Strawberry jelly filling

    Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

    Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

    Watch the video

    Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

    Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

    Use lemonade instead of water.

    Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

    Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

    Throw the bread at a telescope

    Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

    Cut bread into loaves before serving

    Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

    Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

    Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

    Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

    Taste the bread

    put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off

    Buy chemical bread improvers

    Complete 5 items from your to-do list while the bread is rising

    Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of gravy that includes chicken stock

    Add cheese inside it and also sausage

    Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

    Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

    Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

    While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

    Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

    Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

    Use a convection oven/setting

    Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

    Eat it slowly and focus on the taste

    Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    replace 10% of flour with farina bona

    Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag

    Make the bread great again

    Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

    Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

    Make the bread edible then throw it in

    Drink vodka while eating the bread

    Do FOLDED

    Quit Manifold into the bread.

    Kill the bread into Manifold.

    Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

    Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

    Bake for 15 more minutes

    Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

    Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky

    Add a tablespoon of sugar

    Bake one more minute

    Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

    Follow a recipe online

    Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

    Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

    Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour

    Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

    Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number

    Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

    Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

    A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

    Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

    Wear a suit while baking the cake.

    Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

    Replace salt with sugar

    Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

    Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

    Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.

    Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

    Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

    Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

    Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours

    Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

    Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

    Add caffeine to the bread

    Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

    Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

    Improve the bread

    Quadruple salt

    Bake your social security number into it.

    Bake one fewer minute

    Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

    Test/filter the water for heavy metals

    Eat the bread in front of the White House.

    Implement all options that resolved NO

    Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

    Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

    Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

    Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

    make the bread bounce

    Implementing every element listed below.

    Just make donuts instead

    Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

    Use a plastic baking sheet.

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

    Double oven temperature

    Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

    Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

    Light it on fire with birthday candles.

    Bake it with a microwave

    Halve oven temperature

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

    Step on it

    Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

    Bake America Great Again

    Sacrifice a lamb

    Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

    Bake in a cat and a dog

    Explode it:

    5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

    say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

    Take a fat dump in the dough

    Sit in dough 24 hrs

    Replace flour with flowers

    Let dough sit 24 hrs

    Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

    Add 2g? of baking soda

    Bake in rectangular tin

    Add 50g vital wheat gluten

    double yeast

    halve salt

    Double salt

    Add 2tsp olive oil

    Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

    Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

    Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

    Autolyse 20 minutes

    Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

    Think positive thoughts before tasting

    Put fork in microwave

    Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

    Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

    Play classical music while baking

    Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

    Add a pinch of sugar

    Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

    Eat the bread with friends

    Bake vegimite into it.

    Bake vodka into it

    Bake it in the country you were born in.

    Let dough sit 48 hrs

    Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

    Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

    Eat the bread over the course of a week.

    Bake for 5 fewer minutes

    Use 50% whole grain flour

    Bake the bread with love

    Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

    Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

    More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

    Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

    Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

    Add 50g sugar

    Add 50g honey

    Swap 200ml water for milk

    Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

    Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

    Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

    Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

    Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

    Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

    Add banana

    Add poppy seeds

    Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

    Only use tap water from specifically New York City

    Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

    Brush on an egg wash

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    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3373

    405

    Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)

    Jun 19, 3:31 PMJun 19, 11:59 PM
    16.08%chance
    122490

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    7284

    5438

    Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2026?

    Oct 1, 3:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    15.48%chance
    131337

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    242

    58

    OptionProbability

    United Airlines

    Japan Airlines

    SpaceX Airlines

    Alaska Airlines

    British Airways

    Air France

    Hawaiian Airlines

    All Nippon Airways

    Air China

    China Eastern Airlines

    Cathay Pacific

    Singapore Airlines

    KLM Royal Dutch Airlines

    China Southern Airlines

    American Airlines

    Delta Air Lines

    52

    36

    33

    29

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    18

    16

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1020

    980

    Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2027?

    Oct 1, 3:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    53.75%chance
    13762

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    139

    62

    How quickly will the Dutch Jetten cabinet fall?

    Mar 1, 8:44 AMMay 14, 10:59 PM
    6698

    OptionProbability

    Before may 15th, 2030 (next regularly scheduled election)

    Within 3 years (-february 22, 2029)

    Within 2 years (-february 22, 2028)

    Within 1.5 years (-august 22, 2027)

    Within 1 year (-february 22, 2027)

    Within 6 months (-august 22, 2026)

    75

    65

    57

    49

    20

    11

    CDA loses 10+ seats in Dutch parliamentary election after Oct 2025?

    Oct 28, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    35.23%chance
    3356

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1356

    737

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    295

    97

    OptionProbability

    Q1 - January, February, March 2026

    Q2 - April, May, June 2026

    Q3 - July, August, September 2026

    Q4 - October, November, December 2026

    100

    34

    34

    34

    OptionProbability

    €1000 - €1500

    €750 - €1000

    €500 - €750

    > €1500

    €0 - 500

    21

    21

    21

    18

    18

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