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Prediction markets for ECI
OptionProbability
100
86
6
3
2
2
OptionProbability
52
41
2
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
56
18
9
6
6
4
OptionProbability
83
77
67
65
49
44
27
OptionVotes
6634
3859
Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?
Jul 14, 1:48 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
88%chance
131869
OptionVotes
271
37
OptionVotes
2328
810
2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)
Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.9%chance
91750
OptionVotes
2623
2468
Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?
Sep 3, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.18%chance
91236
OptionVotes
1419
705
OptionVotes
1650
882
OptionVotes
1185
985
Which Organization will have the greatest score on ECI by EOY 2026?
Nov 17, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5174
OptionProbability
40
29
11
11
8
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