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Prediction markets for ECI
OptionProbability
96
80
20
12
7
4
What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?
Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3228604
OptionProbability
29
26
17
11
9
6
2
2
OptionProbability
34
30
22
5
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
36
16
13
13
12
10
Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?
Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.09%chance
82651
OptionVotes
1149
870
Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?
Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM
36.12%chance
71161
OptionVotes
3991
2255
By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
Feb 2, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7474
OptionProbability
41
21
15
11
8
5
Which Organization will have the greatest score on ECI by EOY 2026?
Nov 17, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
250
OptionProbability
35
16
16
16
16
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