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Top stories

Japanese PM Ishiba Meets Former Leaders as LDP Plans September 2 Election Defeat Report, 63% Undecided on Early Vote

Authors

9

6 days ago

Prediction markets for Economic Security

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.6%chance

17156346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1336

727

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

22.28%chance

569159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7326

4245

Who will cheerfully explain to @Krantz why his proposed solution to alignment of ASI isn't valid?

Jul 31, 6:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

116854

OptionProbability

Roman Yampolskiy

Agnes Callard

Liron Shapira

Nobody

Cat Woods

Sarah Constantin

Rob Bensinger

Other

Holly Elmore

Rosie Campbell

Robin Hanson

Rob Miles

Aella

Zvi Mowshowitz

Amanda Askell

Allison Duettmann

@robm

Jeffrey Ladish

Nathan Young

Daniel Hillis

Ronny Fernandez

Simon Baars

Liv Boeree

Jamie Joyce

Lex Fridman

Jesse Michels

Dan Faggela

Isaac Linn

Isaac King

Eneasz Brodski

Ozzie Gooen

Jim

Prophet

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Nate Soares

Ben Goertzle

Max Tegmark

Connor Leahy

George Hotz

Nathan Labenz

Noam Brown

7

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

Sep 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.6%chance

231176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

921

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

Will Communism fall from power in Cuba by January 1, 2035?

Dec 5, 2:26 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

39.69%chance

14989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

811

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Party for Freedom (PVV) secures the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary election on October 29, 2025

Jul 26, 5:21 AMOct 29, 5:20 AM

55.82%chance

12817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

890

Will Claudia Sheinbaum have a net positive approval rating at the end of May 2030?

Feb 18, 10:42 PMJun 1, 5:59 AM

46.14%chance

4142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

243

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Japan
Politics
World
Japanese PM Ishiba Meets Former Leaders as LDP Plans September 2 Election Defeat Report, 63% Undecided on Early Vote
Authors
9
6 days ago

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