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Top stories

Verasight Poll Puts Democrats 51-49 Ahead on Generic Ballot

Verasight Poll Puts Democrats 51-49 Ahead on Generic Ballot

Authors

3

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Economist

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

555496084

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3489

1137

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

798539

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

51

32

14

2

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.01%chance

324918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

887

Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

Mar 28, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.03%chance

204242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2207

453

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.52%chance

292067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

655

Which country will be ranked #1 in the Economist's 2025 Democracy Index?

Oct 23, 2:47 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

91673

OptionProbability

Norway

Iceland

New Zealand

Sweden

Switzerland

Australia

Belgium

Costa Rica

Czechia

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Ireland

Japan

Latvia

Luxembourg

Seychelles

Spain

Taiwan

USA

Other

93

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What will the Economist Democracy Index of Syria be in 2025?

May 25, 6:24 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

31468

OptionProbability

2 - 2.5

1 - 1.5

1.5 - 2

2.5 - 4

4 - 5.9

0.5 - 1

0 - 0.5

6 - 7.9

8 - 10

29

14

14

14

14

7

5

1

1

Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?

Apr 15, 5:50 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

58.73%chance

141421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1415

292

Will the country ranked #1 in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of state?

Mar 22, 3:15 PMFeb 8, 11:59 PM

6%chance

131357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

USA's 2025 Economist Democracy Index score?

Nov 20, 9:02 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

6733

OptionProbability

7.5 - 8.0

7.0 - 7.4

6.5 - 6.9

5.0 - 5.4

5.5 - 5.9

6.0 - 6.4

Below 5.0

Above 8.0

49

36

7

2

2

2

1

1

Which country will be selected as "Country of the Year" by The Economist in 2026?

Dec 23, 3:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7668

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Venezuela

Argentina

Brazil

Taiwan

China

India

United Kingdom

Denmark

Canada

43

16

14

13

10

8

8

4

4

3

What would be Burkina Faso classified as in The Economist Democracy Index for 2026?

Jan 25, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1229

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

85

6

5

4

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Elections
Politics
Verasight Poll Puts Democrats 51-49 Ahead on Generic Ballot
Authors
3
5 months ago

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