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Prediction markets for Economist
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31%chance
642683358
OptionVotes
5223
5020
How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?
Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM
8010689
OptionProbability
60
31
8
1
Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?
Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
44.34%chance
344924
OptionVotes
1120
892
Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
Mar 28, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.52%chance
214753
OptionVotes
2771
361
Which Party will the Economist endorse in the next UK General Election?
Apr 1, 11:44 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM
193986
OptionProbability
32
28
21
5
5
5
2
1
Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?
Apr 15, 5:50 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM
30.62%chance
212184
OptionVotes
1084
722
Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?
Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.62%chance
292141
OptionVotes
1762
673
OptionProbability
28
26
26
7
7
4
3
Roland Fryer [Harvard Economist] Multiple Choice markets (many topics, many market lengths)
Dec 10, 9:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
8280
OptionProbability
64
57
44
33
31
24
24
0
0
0
0
0
If this person is leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Labour?
Apr 30, 10:32 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM
7200
OptionProbability
35
31
31
30
29
28
By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Aug 1, 4:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.37%chance
498
OptionVotes
114
93
Will the Economist Democracy Index of India in 2027 be above 7?
Jul 25, 3:13 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM
66.89%chance
360
OptionVotes
142
70
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