Economist News

NO

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

YES

YES

YES

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Norway

Iceland

New Zealand

Sweden

Switzerland

Australia

Belgium

Costa Rica

Czechia

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Ireland

Japan

Latvia

Luxembourg

Seychelles

Spain

Taiwan

USA

NO

1 - 1.5

2 - 2.5

1.5 - 2

2.5 - 4

4 - 5.9

0.5 - 1

0 - 0.5

6 - 7.9

He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2026

Will he have a child by mid 2026? Best wishes to him and his family

He writes a book which appears on the nytimes bestseller list by mid 2029

He joins George Mason University by mid 2026

He spends at least a year overseas by mid 2029

He wins a Nobel prize by mid 2036

He joins Manifold and is verified by mid 2026

He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2024

He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2025

He retires from academic life by mid 2024

Harvard withdraws or softens the results of the investigations which found against him by mid 2025

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

0-0.2

0.2-0.4

0.4-0.6

0.6-0.8

0.8-1

1-1.2

1.2-1.4

1.4-1.6

1.6-1.8

1.8-2

2-2.2

2.2-2.4

2.4-2.6

2.6-2.8

2.8-3

3-3.2

3.2-3.4

3.4-3.6

3.6-3.8

3.8-4

4-4.2

4.2-4.4

4.4-4.6

4.6-4.8

4.8-5

5-5.2

5.2-5.4

5.4-5.6

5.6-5.8

5.8-6

6-6.2

6.2-6.4

6.4-6.6

6.6-6.8

6.8-7

7-7.2

7.2-7.4

7.4-7.6

7.6-7.8

7.8-8

8-8.2

8.2-8.4

8.4-8.6

8.6-8.8

8.8-9

9-9.2

9.2-9.4

9.4-9.6

9.6-9.8