Electoral College News

Trump Orders New Census Excluding Undocumented Immigrants, Reviving Blocked Plan

2 days ago

Who will be voted President of the United States by the Electoral College in 2028?

Oct 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

3611150

OptionProbability

Other

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Gretchen Whitmer

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley

Tulsi Gabbard

Will either the 2024 or 2028 US presidential election result in an Electoral College tie?

Apr 2, 4:51 PMDec 1, 12:00 PM

4.3%chance

295505

OptionVotes

YES

1949

913

Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?

Jul 16, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

182665

OptionVotes

YES

3000

333

Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Aug 11, 4:52 PMDec 15, 4:59 AM

90.42%chance

122205

OptionVotes

YES

3072

325

Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 5:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.3%chance

151934

OptionVotes

YES

1658

851

Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 12:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.61%chance

27665

OptionVotes

YES

1235

906

[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

Nov 7, 2:31 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

16.47%chance

12384

OptionVotes

YES

1107

961

Will Nebraska change it’s electoral college to winner take all before the end of 2026?

Sep 21, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.73%chance

5382

OptionVotes

YES

1371

729

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.38%chance

13373

OptionVotes

YES

1226

855

Will the Electoral College be actually or functionally abolished before the 2032 election?

Aug 19, 6:53 PMNov 3, 6:59 AM

29.81%chance

6210

OptionVotes

YES

153

Which change will happen first in the methods states use choose electors for the Electoral College?

Apr 19, 5:49 AMApr 26, 6:59 AM

7115

OptionProbability

One or more states switch from winner-take-all to proportional

Nebraska and/or Maine switches from proportional to winner-take-all

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact takes effect

No changes by 2050

Other

Electoral College is abolished

Will there be an Electoral College tie by 2049?

Jul 26, 5:34 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.63%chance

456

OptionVotes

YES

181

105

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Aug 7, 2025
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Trump Orders New Census Excluding Undocumented Immigrants, Reviving Blocked Plan
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Who will be voted President of the United States by the Electoral College in 2028?

Will either the 2024 or 2028 US presidential election result in an Electoral College tie?

Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?

Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

Will Nebraska change it’s electoral college to winner take all before the end of 2026?

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

Will the Electoral College be actually or functionally abolished before the 2032 election?

Which change will happen first in the methods states use choose electors for the Electoral College?

Will there be an Electoral College tie by 2049?

Latest stories

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