Electoral College News
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Prediction markets for Electoral College
Who will be voted President of the United States by the Electoral College in 2028?
Oct 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
3711257
OptionProbability
47
26
17
3
2
2
1
1
1
Will either the 2024 or 2028 US presidential election result in an Electoral College tie?
Apr 2, 4:51 PMDec 1, 12:00 PM
4.3%chance
295505
OptionVotes
1949
913
Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?
Jul 16, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
10%chance
182665
OptionVotes
3000
333
Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Aug 11, 4:52 PMDec 15, 4:59 AM
90.42%chance
122205
OptionVotes
3072
325
Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?
Oct 29, 5:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.3%chance
151934
OptionVotes
1658
851
Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?
Oct 29, 12:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
18.61%chance
27665
OptionVotes
1235
906
Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?
May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
69.8%chance
14423
OptionVotes
1276
833
[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Nov 7, 2:31 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM
16.47%chance
12384
OptionVotes
1107
961
Will Nebraska change it’s electoral college to winner take all before the end of 2026?
Sep 21, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
34.73%chance
5382
OptionVotes
1371
729
Will the Electoral College be actually or functionally abolished before the 2032 election?
Aug 19, 6:53 PMNov 3, 6:59 AM
19.46%chance
7260
OptionVotes
203
49
OptionVotes
231
95
If a Democrat wins the Presidency while losing the popular vote, will Republicans turn against the Electoral College?
Feb 21, 3:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.33%chance
646
OptionVotes
157
107
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