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Prediction markets for Energy Department
Will the USA experience power outages due to solar flares in 2025?
Jun 1, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.78%chance
16604
OptionVotes
195
51
U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency?
Nov 3, 11:51 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM
32.03%chance
20584
OptionVotes
146
69
What other government agencies will deny access to members of Congress?
Feb 7, 8:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3558
OptionProbability
36
36
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
31
31
31
31
Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?
Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
57%chance
12518
OptionVotes
1151
869
Will the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar PV be less than $20/MWh by 2030?
Dec 18, 1:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53.02%chance
12496
OptionVotes
203
89
Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?
May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
30.58%chance
13469
OptionVotes
1225
879
Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?
Dec 16, 7:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
17386
OptionProbability
39
12
12
Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?
Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5331
OptionProbability
55
53
51
50
28
OptionVotes
1105
905
☀️ 🏡 When will the US meet the goal of 5¢/kWh for residential photovoltaics?
Dec 7, 4:21 PMApr 15, 6:59 AM
5104
OptionProbability
42
30
22
6
Second Trump administration holds at least one oil/gas sale for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?
Jan 20, 8:15 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM
74.21%chance
580
OptionVotes
170
59
US achieves nuclear reactor buildout goals by July 4, 2026?
Jun 30, 3:29 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM
37.69%chance
343
OptionVotes
129
78
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