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Prediction markets for Equality
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026?
Sep 21, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2211120
OptionProbability
83
79
60
38
25
15
4
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
33.07%chance
5810769
OptionVotes
11052
10904
Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?
Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
73.33%chance
404056
OptionVotes
1575
668
OptionVotes
942
235
Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?
Jan 17, 7:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.45%chance
132531
OptionVotes
1411
709
In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.01%chance
411153
OptionVotes
1265
930
Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?
Aug 10, 1:30 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
25.12%chance
371105
OptionVotes
1247
887
Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?
Nov 24, 12:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
78.22%chance
27922
OptionVotes
1346
871
Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030?
Jan 27, 12:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
34.01%chance
17902
OptionVotes
1435
666
More Super Bowls wins, Lions with Goff or Stafford with Rams (50% if equal)
Nov 20, 1:50 AMFeb 27, 5:59 AM
6193
OptionProbability
84
16
In 20 years, will the lifespan of manga writers/artists be equal to that of the average Japanese male? (2024-2044)
Mar 21, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
36.81%chance
590
OptionVotes
187
138
First Year When NBA All-Star Game scoring is "normal" (less than or equal to 5 total points per minute)
Feb 19, 6:55 AMFeb 27, 5:59 AM
460
OptionProbability
62
20
9
9