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Top stories

UK Police Seek to Charge 60 Supporters of Banned Palestine Action

UK Police Seek to Charge 60 Supporters of Banned Palestine Action

Authors

10

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Equality

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

10904

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.06%chance

414059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

660

Will 1+1 still be equal to 2 on Dec. 31, 9999?

Jun 20, 4:27 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

97.84%chance

152899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

942

235

Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?

Jan 17, 7:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.45%chance

132531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1411

709

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.01%chance

411153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

930

Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

Aug 10, 1:30 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

25.12%chance

371105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

887

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Nov 24, 12:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.22%chance

27922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

871

Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.01%chance

17902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

666

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Buckingham Palace, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

3.48%chance

14755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1439

947

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

4.82%chance

14495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1296

951

This market resolves to PROB equals 10x the percentage of the US human population that declare being romantic involved with some AI in 2050.

Jan 25, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.49%chance

9265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

216

100

Will US median household income equal at least half of average home values by 2035?

Nov 18, 1:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.2%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

96

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Britain
Crime
Politics
UK Police Seek to Charge 60 Supporters of Banned Palestine Action
Authors
10
7 months ago

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