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Prediction markets for EU Parliament
What will be true about the European Union before 2040? [add responses]
Jun 22, 9:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
161704
OptionProbability
76
62
61
60
51
50
50
50
49
47
41
40
33
26
25
24
12
[Metaculus] Will Norway announce a referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in Sept. 2025?
Oct 5, 4:01 PMOct 1, 10:00 AM
1.9%chance
161674
OptionVotes
1442
54
OptionProbability
86
8
2
2
1
0
Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?
May 13, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.95%chance
191132
OptionVotes
1608
914
OptionProbability
39
29
29
3
0
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
63.06%chance
8279
OptionVotes
105
103
What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?
Jul 23, 3:49 AMJul 24, 2:46 AM
7205
OptionProbability
57
57
57
53
51
50
47
39
Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030
Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
46.34%chance
4200
OptionVotes
2091
1916
When will the first company be officially registered under the EU Inc. framework (28th Regime)?
Dec 16, 10:17 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
3160
OptionProbability
25
20
18
18
18
UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?
Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.79%chance
354
OptionVotes
128
78
Will the new EU omnibus be passed by the European Parliament?
Jun 12, 5:14 PMDec 31, 6:12 PM
59.02%chance
120
OptionVotes
120
83