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Prediction markets for Evenity
Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.23%chance
4751212
OptionVotes
2018
481
Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?
Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8.21%chance
7047175
OptionVotes
33318
3293
Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?
Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6.59%chance
6239747
OptionVotes
32582
1375
Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?
Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM
4.51%chance
519229
OptionVotes
4603
217
Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?
Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
39.35%chance
343752
OptionVotes
1245
808
[Let's Play] Will this game last an even number of rounds? (Round 1)
Jul 20, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
293238
OptionProbability
63
21
16
Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?
May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM
14.1%chance
32999
OptionVotes
1456
875
Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)
Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
82.49%chance
15236
OptionVotes
1128
953
Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?
Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM
78.72%chance
10198
OptionVotes
1103
957
OptionProbability
50
46
17
16
12
10
Will "An even deeper atheism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Mar 7, 8:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9%chance
154
OptionVotes
154
93
If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?
Feb 21, 7:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM
65.58%chance
242
OptionVotes
138
72
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