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Top stories

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler Resigns Effective August 8, Trump May Name Next Fed Chair Earlier

US Gov Appointments

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler Resigns Effective August 8, Trump May Name Next Fed Chair Earlier

Authors

8

5 hours ago

Weak U.S. Jobs Data Lifts Odds Fed Cuts Rates in September

Weak U.S. Jobs Data Lifts Odds Fed Cuts Rates in September

Authors

10

7 hours ago

Trump Orders Firing of Labor Statistics Chief After Weak Jobs Report

Executive Orders

US Gov Appointments

Trump Orders Firing of Labor Statistics Chief After Weak Jobs Report

Authors

92

22 hours ago

US Gov Appointments

Trump Signals Powell Likely to Remain Fed Chair

Authors

4

17 hours ago

Executive Orders

Trump Unveils 50% Copper Tariff, Lifts Canada Duty to 35% in Global Shake-Up

Authors

80

1 day ago

Stocks Slide as Trump Tariffs and Weak Jobs Data Jolt Wall Street

Authors

19

21 hours ago

Trump Claims US Jobs Report Was Rigged to Undermine Him

Authors

12

21 hours ago

US Domestic Policy

Trump Urges Fed Board to Seize Control if Powell Won’t Cut Rates

Authors

57

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Federal Reserve

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13%chance

265529157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23353

6200

How many net rate cuts will the Fed (Federal Reserve) do in 2025?

Jan 6, 6:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4318507

OptionProbability

2 cuts (Target 3.75-4.00)

1 cuts (Target 4.00-4.25)

3 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

0 cuts (Target 4.25-4.50 or higher)

4 cuts or more (Target 3.25-3.50 or lower)

60

27

7

5

1

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September 2025?

Jul 15, 7:53 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

73.68%chance

295719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1673

598

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision in September

Aug 1, 4:13 PMSep 17, 5:59 PM

154466

OptionProbability

25 bps decrease

No change

50+ bps decrease

Increase

74

21

5

1

Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31?

Apr 23, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

93738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4349

230

Will the US Federal Reserve issue any rate cuts from May 2025 to end of 2025?

Apr 27, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.42%chance

211158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

276

36

Federal Reserve announces interest rate change on August 30, 2025

Jul 30, 11:53 AMAug 29, 11:52 AM

1%chance

101109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will Jerome Powell be appointed to a third term as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Aug 19, 10:00 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

2.15%chance

18914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

15

Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve?

Apr 10, 3:10 PMApr 1, 2:59 AM

3.67%chance

16841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

695

31

Will Jay Powell still be chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20th, 2026?

Apr 23, 5:49 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

84.07%chance

12561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

44

Will the Federal Reserve end quantitative tightening in 2025?

May 22, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.61%chance

5415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

727

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?

Jun 26, 5:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.96%chance

7200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

247

40

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