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Blockchain Lender Figure Technology Files for Nasdaq IPO, Reports $191 Million Revenue and $29 Million Profit in H1 2025

1 year ago

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

88.09%chance

159141369

OptionVotes

YES

3721

947

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9436655

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure?

Apr 30, 12:47 AMDec 26, 1:29 AM

8.72%chance

304107

OptionVotes

YES

3268

312

Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?

Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM

72.12%chance

202561

OptionVotes

YES

1105

860

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.52%chance

311943

OptionVotes

YES

1045

970

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?

Jan 23, 3:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

241778

OptionVotes

YES

1003

931

Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?

Jan 9, 8:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

121207

OptionProbability

At least one person who has won an Emmy

At least one person who has won a Grammy

None

At least one house representative.

At least one senator.

At least one governor.

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

YES

1276

435

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

1059

954

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Jun 1, 12:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

17.72%chance

17655

OptionVotes

YES

1463

863

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.86%chance

17595

OptionVotes

YES

1436

740

Will "How big is the Sun? How could you figure it out?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.8%chance

2101

OptionVotes

YES

1093

986

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Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
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Blockchain Lender Figure Technology Files for Nasdaq IPO, Reports $191 Million Revenue and $29 Million Profit in H1 2025
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1 year ago

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Prediction markets for Figure

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure?

Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?

Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?

Will "How big is the Sun? How could you figure it out?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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