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Prediction markets for Figure
Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM
88.09%chance
159141369
OptionVotes
3721
947
OptionProbability
99
1
0
0
OptionVotes
3268
312
Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?
Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM
72.12%chance
202561
OptionVotes
1105
860
Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?
Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
75.52%chance
311943
OptionVotes
1045
970
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
Jan 23, 3:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.27%chance
241778
OptionVotes
1003
931
Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?
Jan 9, 8:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
121207
OptionProbability
17
17
15
10
10
7
Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030
May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
47.58%chance
211069
OptionVotes
1276
435
Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?
Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.26%chance
18788
OptionVotes
1059
954
OptionVotes
1463
863
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
Feb 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
76.86%chance
18645
OptionVotes
1486
724
Will "How big is the Sun? How could you figure it out?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 21, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.8%chance
2101
OptionVotes
1093
986
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