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Prediction markets for First Amendment
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
26.4%chance
784395091
OptionVotes
6391
3455
Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?
Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
81.31%chance
93929
OptionVotes
1134
954
Will Texas legalize split-rate property tax (and thus Land Value Tax) within 5 years?
Nov 6, 4:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
31.27%chance
191063
OptionVotes
1966
870
OptionProbability
32
15
13
8
6
6
6
6
6
2
Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)
Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
43.33%chance
5398
OptionVotes
1144
874
If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?
Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM
50.46%chance
8375
OptionVotes
1009
991
Press Freedom: will SCOTUS make it easier for politicians to sue media for defamation?
Aug 13, 5:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
6345
OptionProbability
49
37
Will any AI model released before 2028 reach an Epoch general ECI of at least 200?
Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
23.07%chance
2300
OptionVotes
6278
4810
OptionProbability
48
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
Constitutional Amendment initiated during Prabowo's First Term as President of Indonesia
Mar 11, 10:35 AMOct 31, 12:00 AM
63.64%chance
3130
OptionVotes
132
76
What will the US labor force participation rate be for December 2027?
Aug 8, 7:10 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
72.95%chance
125
OptionProbability
1021
925
Will a Millennium Prize Problem resolution be published before 2028 and subsequently verified?
Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
40.67%chance
110
OptionVotes
1004
979
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