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Prediction markets for First Department

Will more than 100 people in NYC get Ebola in 2025?

Feb 16, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.2%chance

2311886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22785

9667

Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?

Mar 29, 2:11 AMDec 1, 5:00 PM

4.65%chance

254481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2114

712

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

Feb 5, 4:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.94%chance

152984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2990

334

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.23%chance

271685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

713

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Will international students be allowed to enroll at Harvard University for the Fall 2025 semester?

May 30, 2:15 AMSep 7, 2:14 AM

95.59%chance

11485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

466

21

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

11440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

982

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.33%chance

12440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

982

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2030?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.2%chance

12375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

994

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.67%chance

13373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

946

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