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Prediction markets for FO

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.66%chance

34302735545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12696

7705

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25%chance

353405818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2266

1066

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.21%chance

7047175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33318

3293

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.43%chance

4132673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14960

6777

Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?

Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32.94%chance

13228744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10570

8634

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.5%chance

5715897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12925

9373

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

239556

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Coding agents will flip the initiative

“Live learning” will be standard

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

79

72

67

63

56

49

30

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

22.28%chance

569159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7326

4245

Will a U.S. citizen be deported to a foreign country for at least a month?

Apr 28, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:31 PM

66.14%chance

227390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13977

7154

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will "ASIs will not leave just a little sunlight fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 23, 2:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.17%chance

101245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

923

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