FO News
Top stories
Prediction markets for FO
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
45.88%chance
34862801596
OptionVotes
11103
8478
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
47.99%chance
227122509
OptionVotes
12922
3274
Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?
Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
80%chance
130106735
OptionVotes
2642
458
Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?
Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM
30.42%chance
2154258
OptionVotes
16293
6948
Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?
Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM
29.15%chance
6110099
OptionVotes
5753
4784
Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?
Jul 24, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.65%chance
135870
OptionVotes
5679
2185
When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?
Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
454104
OptionVotes
1057
822
Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.67%chance
3290
OptionVotes
1106
986
OptionProbability
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
OptionProbability
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
OptionProbability
50
50
OptionProbability
17
17
17
17
17
17
Latest stories
Latest stories