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Prediction markets for Focus

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

Nov 1, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.11%chance

371994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1665

787

By 2026, will I regret learning a bunch of math/physics as opposed to focusing more on AI?

Jan 2, 12:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.73%chance

181067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

648

Will there be a movie/TV show made that focuses on the trajectory of OpenAI from its inception? (By 2026)

Nov 20, 3:36 PMJan 1, 10:03 AM

39.2%chance

12762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

350

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

62.8%chance

18594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

985

Will Max get a permanent position with a research focus at a top 10 university within 5 years of finishing his PhD?

Jun 25, 1:58 PMJul 1, 2:01 PM

47%chance

13553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

956

Will Giving What We Can recommend any organisations primarily focused on artificial sentience by 2030?

Feb 20, 11:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

83.62%chance

16401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

427

87

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

960

Will the US pass a bill focused on stopping internet piracy by the end of 2025?

Feb 18, 7:37 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.36%chance

15278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

958

will a STEM-focused K-12 opened by Elon Musk hold classes by the end of 2025?

Dec 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.87%chance

7208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

302

106

Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?

Dec 19, 4:37 AMJul 5, 6:59 AM

80.96%chance

10193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

963

What issues should Robert Neuman focus on while running for governor of Oregon?

Dec 31, 2:53 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

330

OptionProbability

Poverty

Homelessness

Equal rights

Employment

Racism

Other

38

31

8

8

8

8

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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