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Prediction markets for Focus
Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?
Nov 1, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
12.8%chance
372244
OptionVotes
1915
747
Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?
Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM
43.08%chance
221199
OptionVotes
1350
593
OptionVotes
1698
130
Will Max get a permanent position with a research focus at a top 10 university within 5 years of finishing his PhD?
Jun 25, 1:58 PMJul 1, 2:01 PM
47%chance
14753
OptionVotes
1034
956
Will Giving What We Can recommend any organisations primarily focused on artificial sentience by 2030?
Feb 20, 11:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
72.58%chance
17434
OptionVotes
306
120
Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?
Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM
23.85%chance
19404
OptionVotes
992
944
Best General, Not Necessarily Research-Focused A.I. News Source (Permanent)
Apr 4, 3:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
6173
OptionProbability
56
35
4
3
2
In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
Feb 9, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
62.49%chance
7127
OptionVotes
174
130
OptionProbability
42
23
17
9
9
OptionProbability
34
28
14
11
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Will a space mission focused on the investigation and exploration of Jupiter's moon Io be approved before 2030?
Apr 1, 1:57 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM
41.81%chance
646
OptionVotes
131
127
OptionProbability
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
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