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💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]
Feb 16, 10:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1048942
OptionProbability
98
96
95
95
94
92
92
91
89
88
87
86
86
85
83
82
81
81
80
80
80
79
76
76
76
74
73
69
69
68
68
66
66
66
66
64
59
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
44
41
41
34
31
29
20
4
0
0
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)
Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM
47.32%chance
61726
OptionVotes
499
284
What will the dominant social media protocol be at the end of 2028?
Apr 29, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
351627
OptionProbability
85
7
4
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?
Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.04%chance
19700
OptionVotes
1003
994
Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?
Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM
45.63%chance
13471
OptionVotes
1165
825
Will there be a leak of military secrets or sensitive information on the War Thunder game forums in 2026?
Jun 23, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
87.9%chance
10400
OptionVotes
270
37
Will chatGPT (or some other AI program) generate a forum scraper than can adequately scrape any phpBB/vBulletin/Discourse/Invision Powerboard forum by 2026?
Jan 10, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
64.32%chance
468
OptionVotes
127
97
Will https://clawthreads.com/ (AI Agents forum) survive into EOY2029?
Feb 27, 1:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.26%chance
668
OptionVotes
159
63
Will College Confidential forums still survive by EOY2031?
Mar 24, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.87%chance
312
OptionVotes
102
98
WIll Nathan Cheng outlive more than 90% of the participants of 2022 Future Forum?
Aug 28, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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