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OptionVotes
183139
54603
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
90.97%chance
11626804
OptionVotes
2867
552
What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]
Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
6214157
OptionProbability
18
17
11
7
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?
Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM
63.77%chance
8413130
OptionVotes
2485
655
Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?
Jun 30, 7:11 AMJul 31, 1:59 PM
65%chance
466004
OptionVotes
1363
734
Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?
Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM
11.79%chance
354112
OptionVotes
2735
366
By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?
May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM
50.18%chance
171774
OptionVotes
1030
965
Will we discover any large object moving faster than 0.1c (inflation-adjusted) in free space before 2040?
Nov 3, 7:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
22.65%chance
61526
OptionVotes
1848
541
Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?
Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
35.45%chance
71416
OptionVotes
1349
741
When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)
Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.37%chance
21964
OptionVotes
1669
1249
Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?
Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
65.83%chance
24897
OptionVotes
1629
1089
If I find a violation of universal free fall, will I come up with a promising tentative explanation?
Jan 4, 3:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.16%chance
16283
OptionVotes
1001
963
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