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OptionVotes
185221
53989
What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]
Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
6414313
OptionProbability
19
16
10
6
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?
Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM
63.77%chance
8413130
OptionVotes
2485
655
Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?
Jun 30, 7:11 AMJul 31, 1:59 PM
66.62%chance
476054
OptionVotes
1413
708
Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?
Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM
10.09%chance
364362
OptionVotes
2985
335
By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?
May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM
50.18%chance
171774
OptionVotes
1030
965
Will we discover any large object moving faster than 0.1c (inflation-adjusted) in free space before 2040?
Nov 3, 7:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
21.2%chance
71606
OptionVotes
1928
519
Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?
Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
35.45%chance
71416
OptionVotes
1349
741
Will a country in sub-Saharan Africa be declared malaria-free by the WHO before 2030?
Jan 25, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.02%chance
181024
OptionVotes
1122
922
When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)
Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.37%chance
21964
OptionVotes
1669
1249
Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
Apr 23, 12:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
73%chance
12574
OptionVotes
1031
835
OptionVotes
10032
9968
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