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Prediction markets for Great Value
Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.23%chance
4751212
OptionVotes
2018
481
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.12%chance
3612488
OptionVotes
19925
5019
Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?
Dec 27, 6:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
26.27%chance
387738
OptionVotes
1470
629
Which ten sub-$250 purchases will most significantly improve my quality of life by 2026? [2k Bounty] [Add Suggestions]
Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
845186
OptionProbability
88
80
77
74
74
73
72
71
71
71
70
67
66
66
66
66
62
60
59
53
52
50
46
45
44
43
43
42
39
36
34
31
29
29
26
26
21
15
12
11
8
4
OptionVotes
937
918
Will the UK introduce a land value tax by end of 2025?
Jul 14, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4%chance
113940
OptionVotes
4899
204
In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks?
Dec 15, 7:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
201560
OptionProbability
41
38
8
5
4
3
What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?
Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
26.04%chance
12728
OptionProbability
1258
854
Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?
Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
29.5%chance
15628
OptionVotes
1177
900
Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?
Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM
78.72%chance
10198
OptionVotes
1103
957


