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Prediction markets for HAL
Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?
Aug 15, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.94%chance
25993900
OptionVotes
4980
2595
Will Elon Musk get more than half of his 2018 $55 billion Tesla pay package
Jan 31, 4:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
99.2%chance
6832531
OptionVotes
15434
277
OptionVotes
12747
6608
OptionProbability
13
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
31
24
14
9
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
33
29
15
11
7
4
2
1
OptionProbability
11
10
10
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1207
803
If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?
Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23405
OptionProbability
29
26
22
8
7
2
2
2
2
1
What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)
Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM
28.7%chance
6215
OptionVotes
125
94
Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?
Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
59.02%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62
OptionProbability
7
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
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