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Prediction markets for Haveli
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM
95%chance
9489316629
OptionVotes
25393
8410
OptionVotes
9341
126
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.91%chance
811504802
OptionVotes
58014
10529
By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?
Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
81.82%chance
26755009
OptionVotes
1063
949
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
27.06%chance
6120269
OptionVotes
16061
6360
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
58.44%chance
4719284
OptionVotes
1146
860
Will I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?
Aug 22, 11:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
45.13%chance
367292
OptionVotes
10996
9099
OptionVotes
10689
9355
Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?
Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.21%chance
204208
OptionVotes
10135
9805
Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
49.22%chance
243307
OptionVotes
10581
9400
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.92%chance
162001
OptionVotes
11684
8683
Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?
May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM
53.06%chance
231747
OptionVotes
10631
9406