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Prediction markets for Haveli
Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?
Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
2.81%chance
1279603195
OptionVotes
656217
28211
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM
92.39%chance
9118702186
OptionVotes
17236
8938
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
12.63%chance
802467730
OptionVotes
48915
11661
OptionVotes
5831
195
Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM
18.84%chance
316241647
OptionVotes
1792
1079
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
28.54%chance
23797440
OptionVotes
1640
605
By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?
Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.25%chance
25746847
OptionVotes
1079
634
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
31.25%chance
5818669
OptionVotes
14461
7017
Will I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?
Aug 22, 11:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
49.81%chance
346282
OptionVotes
10008
9992
Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
49.22%chance
243307
OptionVotes
10581
9400
OptionVotes
10451
9568
Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?
May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM
55.01%chance
221310
OptionVotes
11058
9043