Haveli News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Haveli
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM
94.08%chance
9719455619
OptionVotes
21757
8619
OptionVotes
7951
147
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
10.06%chance
826508702
OptionVotes
57414
10596
Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM
10.77%chance
361294240
OptionVotes
2464
675
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
25%chance
253103473
OptionVotes
1788
550
By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?
Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
79.78%chance
26955393
OptionVotes
974
957
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
32.8%chance
6122391
OptionVotes
13939
7262
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.69%chance
8616597
OptionVotes
12850
7975
OptionVotes
11762
8502
Will I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?
Aug 22, 11:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
45.41%chance
377342
OptionVotes
10935
9149
Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
46.58%chance
263857
OptionVotes
11131
8894
Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?
May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM
54.86%chance
252362
OptionVotes
11023
9072