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Prediction markets for Hiring
Will the killer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson be revealed to have been hired by another party?
Dec 7, 7:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
1.06%chance
2212654
OptionVotes
9682
103
Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire?
Jan 30, 1:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
24.64%chance
5510283
OptionVotes
1229
96
Will this market get Calaveras AI a hire by EOY 2025?
Aug 12, 7:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.37%chance
314929
OptionVotes
14455
6918
OptionVotes
2215
451
If Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney, they will win a Nobel Peace Prize.
Mar 15, 12:45 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
14.11%chance
72529
OptionVotes
247
41
If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?
Sep 24, 11:52 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM
45.19%chance
252473
OptionVotes
1498
1335
Will Salesforce stop hiring software engineers in 2025?
Jan 10, 4:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.39%chance
142280
OptionVotes
3106
322
Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?
Sep 1, 1:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
9.94%chance
171788
OptionVotes
2481
692
Will Amazon fully acquire, acqui‑hire, or own ≥ 50 % of Anthropic before 2029
Jun 10, 10:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.38%chance
131180
OptionVotes
2180
459
How many bank teller jobs will I apply to before getting hired?
Feb 13, 5:23 PMJun 5, 3:59 AM
35.26%chance
13376
OptionVotes
227
135
Will OpenAI hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?
Feb 6, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.2%chance
11242
OptionVotes
148
67
Will Guillaume Verdon/BasedBeffJezos hire bodyguards OR food tasters by EOY 2029
Feb 11, 11:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.98%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62