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Prediction markets for Home Office
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.52%chance
3412373
OptionVotes
19679
5082
During the year 2027, will China implement a pandemic lockdown in a Tier 1 city comparable to 2022's lockdown?
Jul 7, 3:22 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
8.26%chance
11334
OptionVotes
1269
925
Will total applications for asylum in the UK be higher in 2025 than in 2024?
Jan 20, 4:04 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
55.81%chance
6186
OptionVotes
112
89
I accumulate 1,000+ kilometers on e-bike by October 31, 2025?
Jun 15, 5:36 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM
68.98%chance
8103
OptionVotes
149
67
Will the UK revoke citizenship from more than 5,000 naturalised citizens in any single year by EOY2030?
Jul 22, 10:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
34.79%chance
465
OptionVotes
137
73
Will the UK grant more work visas in the year ending September 2025 than in the year ending September 2024?
Jan 20, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
47.76%chance
265
OptionVotes
625
576
OptionVotes
109
92
Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?
Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
122
OptionVotes
100
100
OptionVotes
111
90
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