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Top stories

Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization

Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization

Authors

28

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Horizon

Gemini 3's METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:03 PMDec 31, 12:02 AM

157154394

OptionProbability

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

3h - 3.5h

1.5h - 2h

3.5h - 4h

<1.5h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

30

28

19

11

5

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

Oct 9, 5:57 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

77.4%chance

11217909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1851

540

Claude Opus 4.5's METR-50 time horizon

Nov 24, 8:26 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

6410404

OptionProbability

2h-3h

3h-4h

4h-5h

5h-6h

6h-7h

< 2h

7h-8h

>=8h

43

42

7

4

2

1

1

1

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?

Nov 24, 7:29 PMDec 31, 7:28 PM

77.63%chance

192715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1863

537

Will a model achieve a METR 50% time-horizon of 4+ hours by the end of 2025?

Aug 21, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

221941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will GPT-5.1 have a longer METR time horizon than Gemini 3?

Nov 10, 6:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59%chance

251771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?

Oct 14, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.5%chance

211608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

983

Will there be a Pioneer Horizons set by end of 2025?

Jan 2, 4:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.29%chance

51070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

143

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats GPT-5.1's?

Nov 24, 7:26 PMJan 1, 4:15 AM

86.73%chance

12648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

256

39

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

38.29%chance

4405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

788

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Japan
Fintech
Blockchains
Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization
Authors
28
3 months ago

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