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Top stories

Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization

Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization

Authors

28

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Horizon

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7547067

OptionProbability

3.5-4 months

3-3.5 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

<3 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

25

19

18

14

6

5

4

3

3

2

Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]

Feb 2, 1:06 PMOct 30, 10:59 PM

2211028

OptionProbability

Other

<4h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?

Dec 9, 4:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.96%chance

262524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

212

Horizon: METR 80% task horizon >= 16 hours before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92.37%chance

22500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3500

434

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.42%chance

262357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1581

633

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.13%chance

5721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

920

METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?

Mar 6, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.46%chance

13662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

858

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

30.6%chance

9644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

944

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Japan
Fintech
Blockchains
Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization
Authors
28
1 year ago

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