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Top stories

Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization

Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization

Authors

28

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Horizon

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7546918

OptionProbability

3.5-4 months

3-3.5 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

<3 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

25

18

18

14

9

4

4

3

3

2

METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September

May 10, 8:44 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

33.57%chance

518753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8408

4296

Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon

May 21, 7:08 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

173113

OptionProbability

12h - 14h

14h - 16h

10h - 12h

16h - 18h

8h - 10h

18h - 20h

6h - 8h

Other

20h - 22h

<6h

20

19

14

11

8

8

7

6

5

2

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.55%chance

252355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

631

AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?

Dec 9, 4:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.54%chance

242160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

106

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.13%chance

5721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

920

METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?

Mar 6, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.98%chance

12639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1398

866

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

944

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Japan
Fintech
Blockchains
Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization
Authors
28
1 year ago

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