House of Commons News

YES

YES

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

NO

YES

electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist

Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)

Coronation of King William

A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)

Rejoining the European Customs Union

The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected

A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties

a year where population declines by 1%

A year with inflation >10%

A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)

A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)

Winning the FIFA world cup

Republic

Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty

UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops

House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"

rejoining the European Union

Two new monarchs after Charles III

joining the Euro

A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada

Has an NFL franchise

> 0 MPs in the House of Commons.

polled above 20% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

won >0 General Elections in the past decade.

registered with the Electoral Commission.

more MPs in Wales than any other party (N/A if Wales is independent)

polled above 30% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the most MPs in the House of Commons.

split into multiple electorally-successful parties since 2024.

polled above 40% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the 2nd most MPs in the House of Commons.

won the previous London Mayoral election

more MPs in Scotland than any other party (N/A if Scotland is independent)

YES

YES

> 0 MPs in the House of Commons.

registered with the Electoral Commission.

polled above 20% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

won >0 General Elections in the past decade.

polled above 30% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the most MPs in the House of Commons.

polled above 40% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the 2nd most MPs in the House of Commons.

won the previous London Mayoral election

300 - 349

250 - 299

200 - 249

350 - 399

0 - 200

400 - 449

450 - 500

NO