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Prediction markets for Huawei
Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?
Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.8%chance
3114955
OptionVotes
13994
7146
Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry
Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM
97.16%chance
2711352
OptionVotes
6226
197
OptionProbability
37
27
15
12
8
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
22
21
20
19
15
1
1
1
0
0
Which company will facilitate the greatest number of autonomous vehicle rides in 2030?
Nov 28, 5:56 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
362003
OptionProbability
46
27
24
3
0
0
0
Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?
Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
41525
OptionProbability
41
41
26
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.32%chance
10603
OptionVotes
1375
730
Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
34.98%chance
4505
OptionVotes
1363
733
Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?
Dec 18, 6:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7%chance
10483
OptionVotes
142
96
OptionVotes
1145
982
Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.93%chance
2101
OptionVotes
198
75
Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026
May 2, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
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